Post #113375 by Lake Surfer on Thu, Sep 9, 2004 3:23 PM

Keep all fingers and toes crossed...
As of the last NHC update it has Ivan steering a little more west again... may skirt a bit off the west coast of FLA...

IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE
HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS
DIVERGE. HOWEVER...MODELS FROM 12Z ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND IN GENERAL HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT
WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.

Stay the hell away from Florida this time... give the residents and TC Ohana excited for Hukilau an F'ing break! Everytime I hear I a new report I get sick to my stomach... I can't wait until this one goes away...

[ Edited by: Lake Surfer on 2004-09-09 15:24 ]