Post #362182 by Trader Tom on Tue, Feb 19, 2008 12:53 PM

I was all excited and thought that maybe trade sanctions would be lifted and we'd start getting lots of cheap rum from Cuba that would herald a new tiki drink renaissance. Turns out, not so much...

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Fidel Castro's regime may have survived invasions, assassination plots and embargos, but old age is finally catching up with him.

The long-standing president of Cuba announced his "retirement" Tuesday.

One way or another, Castro managed to outlast nine U.S. presidents and five general secretaries of the Soviet Union -- not to mention the Soviet Union itself.

So at 81, it's probably time for the old guy to take a rest.

But Americans and Cubans looking for a chance to change the nations' historically acrimonious relationship probably shouldn't hold their breath.

The presidential election campaign, for one thing, precludes any immediate change in U.S. policy toward Cuba, even if President Bush was inclined to, which he most certainly isn't.

Then, too, Fidel's brother Raul is hardly more palatable to American conservatives than Fidel himself.

And finally, there's the question of sugar.

Presumably, the U.S. would offer an ideal export market for Cuba's sugar crops. And in light of the deterioration of the latter country's infrastructure in recent years, there should be a good opportunity for trade.

But Americans continue to pay higher costs for their sugar than the rest of the world, thanks to entrenched subsidy programs that have lasted even longer than Fidel.

So even if there is a breakthrough after the election, don't look for the cost of candy bars to drop anytime soon.

-- Tom Bemis, assistant managing editor