Post #436898 by midnite on Fri, Feb 27, 2009 6:02 PM

• cant be the only one wondering?*

MM,
I have been contemplating that issue and considered starting such a topic. It's certainly timely whether one is considering the leisure industry or collecting. Alcohol is typically not recession-proof, there's only a few us that consider booze inelastic, and invariably it's a faulty notion those sectors are better investments in such conditions. Systemic risk of any investment will by definition hit all boats with the same lowering tide. Entertainment or leisure dollars are quickly cut in any budget, be it personal or business. Still, if it's a tiki temple of yesteryear said establishment will have survived previous business cycles similar tot he current one. Perhaps they already possess the business acumen to adjust and fight another day, if not flourish. The final nail for some on the edge now? That is definitely the concern I hold for some of favorite places.

I still watch what the biggest and best tiki collectibles do on ebay given my history with that company. I've seen a real drop in listings but many of the "rare" mugs still attract good bids. Selling prices are a bit lower to recent years but the famous mugs still sell fairly well. The rest? That stuff seems to be much lower. eBay is a whole topic in itself with what measures they took to, in my opinion, ruin a classic business model.

We're in a deflationary environment within a credit restricted business cycle and I would hate to be relying on selling any discretionary items right now or to have to sell a major asset. It's the toughest situation I can recall, and the numbers are starting to resemble mid-1970's circumstances. The light at the end of this tunnel is still pretty weak. That said, the tightening of the old personal financial belt is a great thing for a society that relied too long on debt. Wish I could be more optimistic, but not right now.

I still say it though, support your local tiki bar.

midnite