Rats responsible for Easter Island's demise? - General Tiki

A aquarj Tiki Socialite SF bay area, CA Joined: Apr 02, 2002 Posts: 1125	A aquarj Posted posted on Thu, Dec 8, 2005 5:07 PM This model is so grossly oversimplified, I hope it's not presented as science in that course. Rats have a negative effect on human death, unless they compete with the humans for the same resources that are either consumed for food or consumed as tools in getting food, in which case they have a positive effect on human death? Either way, where is the justification for the inference of actual causal effect, with the predictive value they assign? At least on the webpage where this is described as an assignment, it says "Think of some questions you have about information that was oversimplified or left out of the model above." One would hope that this was the real point of this case study, to explore how oversimplified models are the enemy of real scientific analysis. While we're oversimplifying, why not just reduce it to a model with one rule? Humans have a positive effect on human death. This may or may not be universally true over time, but for the context of Rapa Nui it could be, IF you use the same methodology as that other model applies in its five rules - combining scraps of direct evidence with heaps of speculation and unabashed logical leaping. -Randy

This model is so grossly oversimplified, I hope it's not presented as science in that course. Rats have a negative effect on human death, unless they compete with the humans for the same resources that are either consumed for food or consumed as tools in getting food, in which case they have a positive effect on human death? Either way, where is the justification for the inference of actual causal effect, with the predictive value they assign? At least on the webpage where this is described as an assignment, it says "Think of some questions you have about information that was oversimplified or left out of the model above." One would hope that this was the real point of this case study, to explore how oversimplified models are the enemy of real scientific analysis. While we're oversimplifying, why not just reduce it to a model with one rule?

Humans have a positive effect on human death.

This may or may not be universally true over time, but for the context of Rapa Nui it could be, IF you use the same methodology as that other model applies in its five rules - combining scraps of direct evidence with heaps of speculation and unabashed logical leaping.

-Randy

Post #202248 by aquarj on Thu, Dec 8, 2005 5:07 PM